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In 2050, it is predicted that 4.7bn or nearly 50% of the world's population will take an international holiday. But can humankind meet that forecast given the issues of ageing populations, peak oil, the global financial crisis and climate change? This book constructs scenarios from Shanghai to Edinburgh, Seoul to California encompassing complex topics such as human trafficking, conferences, transport, food tourism or technological innovation. This is a blue skies thinking book about the future of tourism and a thought-provoking analytical commentary.
Any attempt to predict the future is a journey into the unknown. On this adventure the reader will be continuously engaged, intrigued, exhilarated and occasionally irritated by the unexpected connections and extrapolations, but will never be jaded or bored on this breathtaking roller coaster ride into the future.
Dr Ian Yeoman is the world's only professional futurologist dedicated to specializing in travel and tourism. Ian learned his trade as the scenario planner for VisitScotland, where he established the process of futures thinking within the organisation using a variety of techniques including economic modelling, trends analysis and scenario construction. Today he is a leading academic researcher at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand and the European Tourism Futures Institute, Netherlands. Further details on scenario planning and other future insights are posted on the author's blog: www.tomorrowstourist.com.
Authors
Acknowledgements
Forewords
– F. de Klerk Wolters
– G. Lipman
– D. Glaesser
Introduction
1 An Introduction to the Future
Wealth
2 World Economic Order: The Tourism Economy in 2050
3 Where Have All the Tourists Gone? Pensions, Demography and the Germans
4 Tomorrow’s Tourist: Fluid and Simple Identities
Technology
5 Edinburgh 2050: Technological Revolution
6 Singapore 2050: Medicine, Science and the Meetings Industry
7 Amsterdam 2050: Sex, Robots and the End of Human Trafficking
8 New Zealand 2050: The Future of Professional Rugby and Sporting Events
Resources
9 California and Metropolis Los Angeles 2050: Changing Landscapes, Cities and Climate Change
10 Seoul 2050: The Future of Food Tourism
11 Shanghai 2050: The Future of Hotels
12 2050: The Future of Transport
Afterwords
– R. Talwar
– A. Postma
References
Index