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Anticipating a Nuclear Iran
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17 December 2013

— Ilan Berman, vice president, American Foreign Policy Council
Anticipating a Nuclear Iran is a both spare and comprehensive guide concerning perhaps the most vexing security challenge of our time. It is a must-read for the defense and diplomatic communities.
— Robert D. Kaplan, chief geopolitical analyst for Stratfor and author of The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate
This objective and dispassionate assessment of what a nuclear Iran might mean for U.S. security is must reading for the policy maker, the policy analyst, and the broader public policy community. The authors break new ground in their multifaceted discussion of Iran's nuclear program and its implications for deterrence dynamics in the complex twenty-first-century world. A brilliant work of policy scholarship.
— James Stavridis, U.S. Navy (Ret.), and dean, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
The originality of Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr.'s book lies in its creative synthesis of historical, logical, and technology and force-structure trends into a coherent assessment of what a nuclear Iran means for the region and the world. They explain U.S. policy implications of an Iran with atomic weapons in a clear, insightful way.
— Paul Bracken, Yale University, and author of The Second Nuclear Age: Strategy, Danger, and the New Power Politics
Anticipating a Nuclear Iran is an important and sobering volume which should put to rest any suggestion that a nuclear Iran would be easily managed.
Jacquelyn K. Davis is executive vice president of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc. She is a member of the Chief of Naval Operations Executive Panel, where she has cochaired several task forces, including one on Iran. She also serves on U.S. Europe Command's Senior Advisory Group.
Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr. is president of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc., which he cofounded in 1976, and the Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University.
List of Tables and Boxes
Preface
1. Introduction: Setting the Scene for Iran's Emergence as a Nuclear Power
2. The Deterrence Dynamics of an Iran with Nuclear Weapons
3. Considerations Influencing Iran's Nuclear Emergence
4. Nuclear Weapons Operationalization: What Type of Nuclear Force?
5. Implications for U.S. Strategic and Operational Planning
6. U.S. Deterrence Planning in the Event of an Iranian Nuclear Breakout
7. Dealing with a Nuclear Iran and Asymmetric Challenges
8. U.S. Deterrence Planning and Iran
Notes
Index