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Major demographic transitions are underway in Asia and the Pacific. The populations of China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia are aging and shrinking, while India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Australia, among others, continue to grow. How will these striking changes affect regional security dynamics and the United States–led alliance structure in the Indo-Pacific?
Andrew L. Oros offers an expert analysis of how rapid aging and population shifts are transforming the military strategies and capabilities of regional powers in Asia. Examining sixteen states, he provides a comparative view of the developing landscape and explores ways to address the consequences. Oros demonstrates that, contrary to what many have claimed, states with shrinking populations will continue to be formidable military powers. He develops a novel theoretical and empirical argument for why rapid aging does not necessarily dampen security competition. Nonetheless, demographic shifts in the coming decades will fundamentally alter the security challenges facing the United States and its allies. Oros considers how technological change and health care advances are mitigating the drawbacks of aging populations as well as how factors such as autonomous defense systems and artificial intelligence present new challenges. Rigorous and timely, Asia’s Aging Security makes a forceful case that adjustment to demographic change is a necessity for twenty-first-century foreign policy.
— Satu Limaye, vice president, East-West Center
Oros's nuanced and thorough review of the links between population aging and national security is crucial for policy makers given that the world's strongest military powers are also some of the world's demographically oldest states. The stakes are high—and so is the possibility of miscalculation.
— Jennifer Sciubba, president and CEO, Population Reference Bureau
Oros provides a rare and comprehensive look at the significant challenges of twenty-first-century demography and rapid aging in the Indo-Pacific and the implications for geopolitics and US national security policy in the region.
— Seong-ho Sheen, professor of international security, Seoul National University
Oros challenges the widely held theory of “geriatric peace,” which claims that societies are less likely to go to war as their populations get older...[and] shows how societies aging at similar rates adapt in different ways to sustain, and in some cases intensify, the assertiveness of their security posture.
— Elizabeth Economy
List of Figures and Tables
Note on Asian Family and Place Names
Acknowledgments
Introduction
1. Reconsidering the Demographics—National Security Nexus Through a Twenty-First-Century Indo-Pacific Lens
2. Indo-Pacific Security Challenges and Rapid Aging: Pressures for New Security Architecture
3. Northeast Asia’s Rapidly Aging Democracies: the Leading Edge of Super-Aging in Asia
4. Northeast Asia’s Rapidly Aging Autocracies: Later Timing, Greater Control
5. Opportunities and Cautions from the Demographic Diversity of the Broader Indo-Pacific
Conclusion: Addressing the Security Implications of Rapid Aging in the Indo-Pacific
Notes
Bibliography
Index