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Why homicides have increased
The homicide rate in the United States increased by approximately 55 percent from 2014 to 2021. An initial spike in homicide rates began in 2015, and the rate continued on its generally upward trajectory through subsequent years, eventually increasing by the largest annual margin in recorded history during 2020. By 2021, several cities and states recorded homicide rates higher than during the crime-plagued 1990s. Why did America suddenly become more violent?
James Tuttle examines the underlying causes behind this surge in violence, arguing that it is the result of the decline in American well-being, a growing distrust in institutions, an increase in alcohol and drug abuse, and escalating firearm sales. Tuttle also shows how the homicide epidemic has hit different parts of the country; notably there has been an increase in homicide in the Midwest that is 25 percent greater than in the rest of the country.
Through comprehensive analysis of the most recent crime data available, Tuttle provides compelling evidence supporting these contentions, illuminating the intricate relationship between societal decline and the homicide epidemic. This book builds on evidence that demonstrates the limited impact of police tactics on crime rates, and finds little substantiation for the notion that police department defunding played a role in the rise of crime across American cities. Crime Wave attempts to reframe the public debate beyond the current “police-only” paradigm of explaining crime trends by examining the broader social and cultural forces that shape American violence.
"Crime Wave presents an informative investigation into the significant and unexpected rise in homicide from 2015 to 2021. It provides a detailed overview of the scope and magnitude of this increase while also assessing the criminogenic forces that contributed to it. Tuttle advances an overarching premise that the recent homicide increase is a product of the ongoing decline in the institutional and psychosocial foundations of American society, worsened by the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic. Tuttle utilizes city-level data to test explanations for the homicide increase—indicators of societal decline, including substance use, deteriorating legitimacy, and firearm purchases. Crime Wave concludes with a bold and insightful forecast of potential trends in homicide rates in the coming years. Both scholars and students will find valuable insights in this work, and no researcher studying trends in American homicide should overlook it."