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Mathematical models have become one of the principal infrastructures through which contemporary societies are governed, shaping decisions in science, policy and the economy, often beyond meaningful public scrutiny. Used in domains such as climate change, finance, public health and environmental policy, models do more than describe the world: they frame problems, distribute responsibility and influence collective choices. Their technical complexity often confers epistemic authority, enabling them to shape policy while remaining largely insulated from critical examination.
Equations of Power explores how mathematical models acquire this authority, why they have become such influential instruments of governance, and what happens when their assumptions and limitations remain insufficiently examined. Drawing on examples from pandemic modelling, climate policy, economic forecasting and environmental assessment, the book argues that models are best understood as socio-technical instruments embedded within political and institutional processes rather than as neutral technical tools. It concludes by examining practical proposals for making modelling more transparent, accountable and scientifically robust.
"The authoritarian jurist Carl Schmitt wrote, ‘Sovereign is he who decides on the exception’. In this lucid and penetrating book, Saltelli shows that mathematical models are increasingly replacing political deliberation with technical calculation and explains why this poses a threat to democracy. Through case studies, he demonstrates how models function to obscure structural inequality, concentrations of capital and market dynamics, and suppress value-laden questions about resource allocation. With clarity and precision, Saltelli points the reader to the political questions that mathematical models hide under the cover of technical assumptions and argues that these should be the very focus of democratic deliberation in the 21st century. The stakes are no less than political freedom, Saltelli argues, as models are ‘usurping sovereignty by showing states of exception’." — Eric Winsberg, British Academy Global Professor of History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Cambridge and Professor of Philosophy at the University of South Florida.
"The world is hurtling, unguided, towards the full embrace of machine learning and AI. Given the enormous power now wielded by the ‘models in the machines’, and applied to an increasing swathe of public life and decision-making, Andrea Saltelli asks the most important of questions: ‘Are we equipped with the necessary tools to keep an eye on what models are or what they do?’ Saltelli lifts the veil on models as instruments of power and offers some ways to reclaim human agency. We need to heed his warnings." —Mike Hulme, Professor of Human Geography, University of Cambridge, UK.
"At a time when scientific authority is migrating from disciplines and institutions to modelling infrastructures, Saltelli offers a vital intellectual compass. This brilliant book reveals how models govern our world; and how plural, contestable modelling might help us build a common one. A must-read for everyone." —Tommaso Vitale, Full Professor of Sociology and Dean of the Urban School Sciences Po, Center for European Studies and Comparative Politics, France.
"In a world under the illusion of knowing everything through data and AI, Saltelli's book questions what the models at their heart are and aren't, and how much authority they should have over our lives. A must-read for academics, but even more so for policy practitioners." —Dr Merve Burnazoglu, Assistant Professor of Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Utrecht University, the Netherlands
"Models are increasingly affecting our lives. This book shows ways to understand how models shape our world, and encourages us to start much-needed counter-modelling." —Dr Jeroen Vos, Associate Professor, Water Resources Management, Wageningen University & Research, the Netherlands.
Andrea Saltelli is senior lecturer at the UPF Barcelona School of Management and affiliated with the Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen. A long-time practitioner of mathematical modelling and sensitivity analysis, he works at the intersection of model quality assessment, the sociology of quantification, science for policy and research ethics.