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This book surveys the past, present, and potential future variability of hurricanes and typhoons on a variety of timescales using newly developed approaches based on geological and archival records, in addition to more traditional approaches based on the analysis of the historical record of tropical cyclone tracks. A unique aspect of the book is that it provides an overview of the developing field of paleotempestology, which uses geological, biological, and documentary evidence to reconstruct prehistoric changes in hurricane landfall. The book also presents a particularly wide sampling of ongoing efforts to extend the best track data sets using historical material from many sources, including Chinese archives, British naval logbooks, Spanish colonial records, and early diaries from South Carolina.
The book will be of particular interest to tropical meteorologists, geologists, and climatologists as well as to the catastrophe reinsurance industry, graduate students in meteorology, and public employees active in planning and emergency management.
Introduction, by Richard J. Murnane
Part I Prehistoric Variability: Millennial to Centennial
2. Paleotempestology: Principles, Methods, and Examples from Gulf Coast Lake Sediments, by Kam-biu Liu
3. Back-barrier Sedimentary Records of Intense Hurricane Landfalls in the Northeastern United States, by Jeffrey P. Donnelly and Thompson Webb III
Part II. Historic Variability: Centennial to Annual
4. A Method for Reconstructing Historical Hurricanes, by Emery R. Boose
5. Tropical Cyclone Reconstructions from Documentary Records: Examples for South Carolina, United States, by Cary J. Mock
6. The Use of Spanish and British Documentary Sources in the Investigation of Atlantic Hurricane Incidence in Historical Times, by Ricardo García Herrera, Francisco Rubino Durán, Dennis Wheeler, Emiliano Hernánd
7. The Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis Project: Documentation for 1851-1910 Alterations and Additions to the HURDAT Database, by Christopher W. Landsea, Craig Anderson, Noel Charles, Gilbert Clark, Jason Dunio
8. Ancient Records of Typhoons in Chinese Historical Documents, by Kin-sheun Louie and Kam-biu Liu
9. The Importance of Best-Track Data for Understanding the Past, Present, and Future of Hurricanes and Typhoons, by Richard J. Murnane
Part III. Present-day Variability: Interdecadal to Intraseasonal
10. Variations in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific: From Interdecadal to Intraseasonal, by Johnny C. L. Chan
11. ENSO and Tropical Cyclone Activity, by Pao-Shin Chu
12. Hurricane Landfall Probability and Climate, by James B. Elsner and Brian H. Bossak
13. Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Storm Statistics, by Frédéric Vitart
Part IV. Potential Future Changes
14. Response of Tropical Cyclone Activity to Climate Change: Theoretical Basis, by Kerry Emanuel
15. Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Intensities as Simulated Using Regional Nested High-Resolution Models, by Thomas R. Knutson, Robert E. Tuleya, Weixing Shen, and Isaac Ginis
16. Conclusion, by Richard J. Murnane and Kam-biu Liu
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