In coastal Louisiana – one of the US regions most vulnerable to rising sea levels – a commercial fisherman surveys flooded marshes and advancing waters and remarks, “In my lifetime, I don’t see any change.” In an era when misinformation, distrust, and partisan division routinely undermine public confidence in evidence, the question has become increasingly urgent: How to engage with people whose response to clear, factual evidence is simply, “I just don’t believe it”?

Persistent disagreement over issues such as climate change, election integrity, and vaccination is commonly attributed to ideology: people filter evidence through deeply held belief systems, rejecting or reinterpreting findings that conflict with their worldview. Drawing on research in political science and social ontology, Sean Zwagerman argues otherwise. Most false beliefs, he contends, are sustained not by ideological commitment but by self-satisfied conviction – confidence in the self-validating power of belief itself, reinforced by communities of like-minded believers and by the certainty that accompanies strongly held opinions. Such convictions resist persuasion and their prevalence impedes public discourse, undermines democracy, and deepens polarization. In the face of such unpersuadable convictions, Zwagerman urges that the standard speech acts of persuasion – logical demonstration and evidence-based argument – must be preceded by curiosity, validation, and active listening.

I Just Don’t Believe It offers a vital path forward: replacing confrontation with invitation, seeking shared values, and rebuilding collective responsibility, one difficult conversation at a time.