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This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.
"W. Joseph Campbell's work always opens my eyes, challenging assumptions the world has turned into facts. Whenever I get a chance to read Campbell's work, I seize it."—Jake Tapper, CNN anchor
Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024.
As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes
Acknowledgments
Introduction: Of Pollsters, Journalists, and Presidential Elections
1. Of Poll-Bashing Journalists and the “Babe Ruth” of Survey Research
2. “A Time of Polls Gone Mad”: The Literary Digest Debacle of 1936
3. “The Defeat of the Pollsters”: The Epic Fail of 1948
4. A Tie “Would Suit Them Fine”: The 1952 Landslide Pollsters Did Not Foresee
5. The “Close Race That Never Happened”: Miscalling the 1980 Election
6. “Television’s Version of ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’”: The Trifecta of 2000
7. “President Kerry”: Exit Polls Misfire in 2004
8. “Gallup vs. the World”: Pointing the Wrong Way in 2012
9. “The Night That Wasn’t Supposed to Happen”: The Shock Election of 2016
10. A “Stinking Pile of Hot Garbage”: Polls of 2020 Were the Worst in Forty Years
Conclusion: Will It Happen Again?
Notes
Select Bibliography
Index