• Lost in a Gallup
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Lost in a Gallup

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This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. "W....
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  • 20 February 2024
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This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.

"W. Joseph Campbell's work always opens my eyes, challenging assumptions the world has turned into facts. Whenever I get a chance to read Campbell's work, I seize it."—Jake Tapper, CNN anchor

Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. 

As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

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Price: $27.95
Pages: 368
Publisher: University of California Press
Imprint: University of California Press
Publication Date: 20 February 2024
Trim Size: 9.00 X 6.00 in
ISBN: 9780520397781
Format: Paperback
REVIEWS Icon
"Campbell puts the glaring mistakes of the 2016 presidential polls in historical perspective in this accessible and well-informed survey of polling errors. . . . Newshounds closely following the latest 2020 predictions would be well-advised to read this bracing reality check."


"A fast-moving narrative history of some attempts to gauge public opinion amid electoral politics. . . . Campbell’s gaze goes far beyond the Beltway and back further in history than the astonishing election night four years ago." 


"Campbell’s book is a tour de force on the history of presidential polling.”


"Campbell shows how other errors have bedeviled the polling industry since 1936 despite decades of advances in computer power and statistical sophistication. It is difficult to read Campbell’s book without empathizing with the pollsters and (crucially, as Campbell observes) the journalists and pundits interpreting and amplifying their conclusions."


"A lively account of the personalities and squabbles, the greatest hits and equally great misses, that marked polling’s U.S. ascent. . . . Campbell provides a brisk historical tour of technical breakthroughs like probability sampling and new instruments such as the exit poll. It is not exactly a tale of progress."


"Campbell’s book is well-written, impressively researched, and detailed. . . . Lost in a Gallup comes alive as Campbell relays the internal critiques, jealousies, evaluations, and self-assessments of the pollsters."


"Campbell’s journalistic style is engaging, and he covers a tremendous amount of ground. . . . [he] raises important and timely questions about both polling and journalism performance."


"This extensively researched and engagingly written volume profiles early pioneers of polling…highlighting their contributions, missteps, and non infrequent competitiveness and hubris."


"An entertaining and informative peek into a recently much-maligned aspect of U.S. elections."
W. Joseph Campbell is an American writer, historian, and media critic who is the author of six other books, including the award-winning Getting It Wrong: Debunking the Greatest Myths in American Journalism.
Contents

List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes 
Acknowledgments 

Introduction: Of Pollsters, Journalists, and Presidential Elections 
1. Of Poll-Bashing Journalists and the “Babe Ruth” of Survey Research 
2. “A Time of Polls Gone Mad”: The Literary Digest Debacle of 1936 
3. “The Defeat of the Pollsters”: The Epic Fail of 1948 
4. A Tie “Would Suit Them Fine”: The 1952 Landslide Pollsters Did Not Foresee 
5. The “Close Race That Never Happened”: Miscalling the 1980 Election 
6. “Television’s Version of ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’”: The Trifecta of 2000 
7. “President Kerry”: Exit Polls Misfire in 2004 
8. “Gallup vs. the World”: Pointing the Wrong Way in 2012 
9. “The Night That Wasn’t Supposed to Happen”: The Shock Election of 2016 
10. A “Stinking Pile of Hot Garbage”: Polls of 2020 Were the Worst in Forty Years 
Conclusion: Will It Happen Again? 

Notes 
Select Bibliography 
Index