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Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business
From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds.
Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done.
In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can:
• draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee
• tap the “intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees
• replace surveys
• substitute for endless meetings
By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market—all to the benefit of their bottom line.
From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds.
Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done.
In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can:
• draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee
• tap the “intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees
• replace surveys
• substitute for endless meetings
By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market—all to the benefit of their bottom line.
Price: $26.00
Pages: 272
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
Imprint: Harvard Business Review Press
Publication Date:
05 June 2012
Trim Size: 9.25 X 6.13 in
ISBN: 9781422183175
Format: Hardcover
“Donald Thompson shows that group predictions can help unveil hidden knowledge. They can replace market studies and even diminish the need for endless meetings and brainstorming sessions. Thompson provides numerous examples and urges business managers to test out the collective wisdom of their company ‘crowd.’” — Business Digest
“Oracles offers a fresh look at improving decision-making skills.” — CHOICE Magazine
“… there are enough examples of corporate successes for any executive to find use in this book, building on the notions of the wisdom of crowds and the value of open-book management.” — The Globe & Mail
ADVANCE PRAISE for Oracles
“Oracles is a fantastic blend of the visionary and the practical. Don analyzes both the transformational potential of prediction markets and the organizational complexities that make realizing this potential a challenge. A comprehensive history for anyone considering using prediction markets to change their organization.” — Leslie Fine, Chief Scientist, Crowdcast
“Thompson delivers a thorough but accessible survey of prediction markets, covering everything from their theoretical foundation to current best practices—a must-read.” — Jeff Severts, Chief Marketing and Services Officer, Best Buy Europe
“Oracles provides a comprehensive look at prediction markets and explores the extraordinary results and challenges of the early adapters and their providers. If you are considering a prediction market for your company, you need to read this book.” — Linda Rebrovick, CEO, Consensus Point
“Oracles offers a fresh look at improving decision-making skills.” — CHOICE Magazine
“… there are enough examples of corporate successes for any executive to find use in this book, building on the notions of the wisdom of crowds and the value of open-book management.” — The Globe & Mail
ADVANCE PRAISE for Oracles
“Oracles is a fantastic blend of the visionary and the practical. Don analyzes both the transformational potential of prediction markets and the organizational complexities that make realizing this potential a challenge. A comprehensive history for anyone considering using prediction markets to change their organization.” — Leslie Fine, Chief Scientist, Crowdcast
“Thompson delivers a thorough but accessible survey of prediction markets, covering everything from their theoretical foundation to current best practices—a must-read.” — Jeff Severts, Chief Marketing and Services Officer, Best Buy Europe
“Oracles provides a comprehensive look at prediction markets and explores the extraordinary results and challenges of the early adapters and their providers. If you are considering a prediction market for your company, you need to read this book.” — Linda Rebrovick, CEO, Consensus Point
Donald N. Thompson is an economist and professor of marketing, emeritus, at the Schulich School of Business at York University in Toronto. He has taught at Harvard Business School and the London School of Economics. Thompson is author of nine books, including The $12 Million Stuffed Shark: The Curious Economics of Contemporary Art, which has been published in thirteen languages.