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If the US continues with current policies, the next decades will be marked by war, economic collapse, and environmental catastrophe. Resource depletion and population pressures are about to catch up with us, and no one is prepared. The political élites, especially in the US, are incapable of dealing with the situation, and have in mind a punishing game of "Last One Standing."
The alternative is "Powerdown," a strategy that will require tremendous effort and economic sacrifice in order to reduce per-capita resource usage in wealthy countries, develop alternative energy sources, distribute resources more equitably, and reduce the human population humanely but systematically over time. While civil society organizations push for a mild version of this, the vast majority of the world's people are in the dark, not understanding the challenges ahead, nor the options realistically available.
Powerdown speaks frankly to these dilemmas. Avoiding cynicism and despair, it begins with an overview of the likely impacts of oil and natural gas depletion and then outlines four options for industrial societies during the next decades:
- Last One Standing: the path of competition for remaining resources;
- Powerdown: the path of cooperation, conservation, and sharing;
- Waiting for a Magic Elixir: wishful thinking, false hopes, and denial;
- Building Lifeboats: the path of community solidarity and preservation.
Finally, the book explores how three important groups within global society - the power élites, the opposition to the élites (the antiwar and anti-globalization movements, et al: the "Other Superpower"), and ordinary people - are likely to respond to these four options. Timely, accessible and eloquent, Powerdown is crucial reading for our times.
RICHARD HEINBERG is a journalist, educator, lecturer, and musician. He has lectured widely, appearing on national radio and television in five countries, and is the author of five previous books, including The Party’s Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies; Cloning the Buddha: The Moral Impact of Biotechnology and A New Covenant with Nature: Notes on the End of Civilization and the Renewal of Culture. The latter was a recipient of the “Books to Live By” award of Body/Mind/Spirit magazine. He sits on the Board of Advisors of the Solar Living Institute, and on the Board of Directors of the Post Carbon Institute.
His monthly MuseLetter was nominated in 1994 by Utne Reader for an Alternative Press Award and has been included in Utne’s annual list of Best Alternative Newsletters.
Heinberg is a member of the Core Faculty of New College of California, where he teaches courses on “Energy and Society” and “Culture, Ecology, and Sustainable Community.” He is also an accomplished violinist. He and his wife, Janet Barocco, live in a suburban home they have renovated for energy efficiency, where they grow much of their own food.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 1: THE END OF CHEAP ENERGY
Recent Confirmations of an Imminent Oil Peak
The Petroleum Plateau and Beyond
Surveying the Plateau
The Natural Gas Quandary
A Perilous Prosperity
CHAPTER 2: LAST ONE STANDING: THE WAY OF WAR AND COMPETITION
Can the Free Market Prevent Resource Wars?
The Case of Iraq
Just When We Needed Brilliant Leadership
Types of Resource Wars
The Path of Least Resistance
CHAPTER 3: POWERDOWN: THE PATH OF SELF-LIMITATION, COOPERATION, AND SHARING
Requirements for Powerdown
The Paradox of Scale
Useful Precedents
Assessing the Prospects
CHAPTER 4: WAITING FOR THE MAGIC ELIXIR: FALSE HOPES, WISHFUL THINKING, AND DENIAL
Unconventional Hydrocarbon Sources
High on Hydrogen
Why Even the Perfect Energy Source Will Not Sustain Growth Indefinitely
CHAPTER 5: BUILDING LIFEBOATS: THE PATH OF COMMUNITY SOLIDARITY AND PRESERVATION
How Civilizations Collapse
Who Will survive?
Saving What Is Best
CHAPTER 6: OUR CHOICE
The Choice of the Elites
The Choice of the Movement
The Choice of Us Folks
Looking Ahead
NOTES
INDEX
ABOUT THE AUTHOR