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In the wake of the Taliban's military defeat in 2001, foreign fighters played a critical role in assisting the Taliban to launch an insurgency against Coalition forces. Ten years later, by al-Qaida's own admission, the Taliban "almost didn't need" al-Qaida's non-Afghan fighters. Over time the Taliban grew sufficiently in strength that its need for foreign fighters—and foreign fighters' influence—virtually disappeared. Somalia shows a similar pattern. Foreign fighters initially played a prominent role in al-Shabaab, helping the group to launch an insurgency against Ethiopian forces, but their influence also declined as al-Shabaab became the dominant insurgent organization and built ties within Somali society. This is the first book to examine how foreign fighters gain and lose influence during insurgencies. Understanding foreign fighters' impact on conflicts is of increasing importance as the number of foreign fighters who have mobilized has grown in recent years, both in absolute numbers and in terms of the proportion of conflicts in which they are involved. In examining the conditions that contribute to the changes in their effect over time, Bacon explains how and why foreign fighter influence evolves within a conflict and which factors enable and constrain foreign fighter influence throughout an insurgency. Knowing how foreign fighters are situated vis-à-vis local insurgents, specifically the type of relationships they forge, should shape every aspect of counterinsurgency strategies to avoid counterproductive tactics, more effectively counter insurgent movements, and better protect civilians.
"Foreign fighters aggravate international conflicts, but through what mechanisms? Tricia L. Bacon sheds new light on this question by highlighting foreign fighter-local insurgent relations as a critical, and underexplored, variable. Meticulously researched and cogently argued,The Counterinsurgency Dilemmais a major contribution to our understanding of contemporary conflict dynamics." —Assaf Moghadam, author of Nexus of Global Jihad: Understanding Cooperation Among Terrorist Actors
"The Counterinsurgency Dilemma is an important contribution to understanding the dynamics and relationships between foreign fighters and their local insurgent hosts. Tricia Bacon's meticulous research, extensive field work, and incisive analysis casts new light on this critical dimension of contemporary conflict and will be of great interest for scholars, students, and counterinsurgency practitioners and policymakers alike." —Bruce Hoffman, author of Inside Terrorism
"The Counterinsurgency Dilemma offers a valuable resource for analysts, whether in academia or government. Bacon provides a very sophisticated and nuanced approach to assessing relations between insurgent groups and foreign fighters. The model is well explicated, making it very useful for further study and research. The Counterinsurgency Dilemma is highly recommended." —Lawrence E. Cline, Small Wars & Insurgencies
Preface
Acknowledgments
Maps
Introduction
1. A Theory of Foreign Fighter–Local Insurgent Relations
2. Afghanistan: Foreign Fighter–Local Insurgent Relations During the Anti-Soviet War
3. Afghanistan: Foreign Fighter–Local Insurgent Relations During the Taliban's Resurgence
4. Afghanistan: Foreign Fighter–Taliban Relations During the Surge and Drawdown
5. Afghanistan: Foreign Fighter–Taliban Relations During the Taliban's Victory
6. Somalia: Foreign Fighter–Local Insurgent Relations During the International Intervention
7. Somalia: Foreign Fighter–Local Insurgent Relations During al-Shabaab's Emergence
8. Somalia: Foreign Fighter–al-Shabaab Relations During al-Shabaab's Rise and Fall
9. Somalia: Foreign Fighter–al-Shabaab Relations During al-Shabaab's Equilibrium
10. Conclusion
Notes
Index