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This comprehensive study, based on state voter files, shows how low primary turnout distorts representation and explores reforms to increase participation
The Problem with Primary Voters is the most comprehensive study to date of primary election voters. The authors examine state voter files, drawn from the near-universe of US adults and all primary voters, matching these voter files to commercial data and predictive models of voter partisanship and ideology. Their research reveals that a representative democracy needs three things from its voters to function: participation, representation, and consistency. However, fewer than 20 percent of eligible voters participate in primary elections for Congress or state offices, and the voters who do take part are often highly unrepresentative not only of the general population but also of the voters in their own states and even of the other members of their party.
Although there are many proposals for primary election reform, the authors contend that marginal increases in turnout may not make the primary electorate significantly more representative and may, in fact, have the opposite effect—making the primary electorate even less representative. The Problem with Primary Voters argues that the only reform proposal that garners substantial public support and has the potential to satisfy the three goals of participation, representation, and consistency is the establishment of a national primary day. Accordingly, the book closes with an explanation of why the authors think this reform could work, why it is politically feasible, and how it might be established.
Robert G. Boatright is Professor of Political Science at Clark University and the Director of Research for the National Institute for Civil Discourse at the University of Arizona. He is the author of Reform and Retrenchment: A Century of Efforts to Fix Primary Elections and The Deregulatory Moment? A Comparative Perspective on Changing Campaign Finance Laws.
Caroline J. Tolbert is a Distinguished University Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa. She is the coauthor of Accessible Elections: How State Governments Can Help Americans Vote and Choosing the Future: Technology and Opportunity in Communities.
Nathan K. Micatka is Assistant Professor of Political Science in the Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice at the University of South Alabama. He has previously published research in Policy Studies Journal, Political Research Quarterly, and JAMA Health Forum.